Disflamer: Unless you know who you are I do not intend to offend you; if I am rude or boring, I apologize.
These are not all my opinions, they may be somebody else's opinions, some of them are just visiting.
Disflamer: 
"Close the shop of argument and mystery. Open the teahouse of experience."
Hamadani (12c. poet)
When I settled in Durango in 1987, there was an old roadhouse called the Mill Creek Inn up north of town. I remembered it from my earlier travels through this region, it was an isolated old inn at the end of a winter road, up at the Coalbank gate across Highway 550, beside a mountain stream. I had sometimes dreamed of running the place, of meeting, lodging, feeding and refreshing travelers, and of hearing their tales. I had dreamed of learning something about the way information travels, and of operating the highway gate as weather or occupancy dictated.
A year or so after I moved here the old roadhouse was burned down, in a VFD training exercise, to make room for the driveway of a mountain trophy home. I belonged to the local Volunteer Fire Department, the gate on the highway is still there, I don't know the gatekeeper. There used to be a great roadhouse north of Bernalillo, out on the old highway to Santa Fe; visiting blues bands would often play the night away out there, but that's another story.
More to the point, I once proposed* that the reason printing was invented in Mainz was that the city lay at the intersection of old trade routes between the four corners of the medieval world, and that the invention of printing coincided with a confluence of knowledge, technology, and information in that ancient town. Further out, to the east, along the Silk Road, caravanserai could be found where other routes combined. In those places refreshments, goods, information, and songs and stories old and new, were traded and, I expect, ideas may have been fertilized. Before written books were invented, information could travel only in someone's head, which tends to make it idiosyncratic. It wasn't until printed books were commonplace that we really began to appreciate one of the fundamental properties of information: you can copy it without diminishing it. The principle of world-wide web technology is that you can make any information, anywhere, available to anybody, anywhere, at any time. Now ideas can grow throughout the world - fertilized by ubiquitous information.
The Teahouse of Experience is a personal, virtual establishment where my ideas, explorations and trade come together. Welcome, please make yourself at home, thank you for visiting.
Mulla Nasrudin was known to frequent teahouses,
exploring the impossible and asking awkward questions
I have been dialing up computers for more than 30 years, but I am still startled by modem noise - I used to be able to tell how fast the connection was by the squeaking. Come to think of it, I still can…
Some people think that life is like a game show; some that it is like a soap opera, and some that it is like a box of chocolates - a euphemism for 'you never know what you're going to get.' Why is that? I always understood that there's a shape code for chocolates: squares are harder, round is soft, rectangular is crunchy, diamonds are almond paste, and ones with big bumps on top are nuts.
Isn't it strange that in America, the world's most powerful democracy, the public's greatest, individual fear is of public speaking?
I don't get many postcards; those I get are usually pretty cool, I use them as bookmarks. I regard books as companions and teachers, its nice having greetings from my friends in them, too.
Now the web gets answers for anyone from everybody. One of the things I like is that you can get what appear to be amazingly irrelevant results when you search. For example, I was running an Alta Vista search about web robots, those programs that work the web for you. I searched for bot +"web site" -botanical -botany, and item number 3 of my results was a link to the Bank of Tanzania in Dar es Salaam. I find web search engines quite entertaining, they are descendants of the Lockheed Dialog and SDC Orbit Database services that I wrote an online training system for in nineteen seventy-six and -seven.
I like how quickly the world-wide web has grown. The web is reaching more people at a much faster rate than radio or television did in their first years. I see that by the end of the year 2001 there were more than 40 million web servers, I estimate that the number of people the web reaches is approaching a billion. I expect tremendous after effects soon.
March, 2002: So many more servers are starting to charge their users that some say the number of free services may have already peaked.
March, 2005
Web growth exceeds all expectations and most forecasts.
In 1999 I was using this projection (below) in training pages, the scale on the left goes up to $60 billion
By 2001 I was using this projection (above), same scale, but topped out.
Forrester Research forecasted, in 2003, that "U.S. online retail sales will grow steadily over the next five years, from $95.7 billion in 2003 to $229.9 billion in 2008"quoted at akamai.com.
The Internet Advertising Bureau reports that internet advertising generated $9.6 billion in revenue in 2004 … - reported at www.ebcvg.com.
A Forbes daily survey reports that 26% of all respondents would shop mostly online in 2004.
I revised my chart again, right, the $cale now useless.
These figures could put the web's growth curves into geometric space, beyond the reach of logarithmic and combinatorial scales.
The world-wide web is growing at a rate that is apparently unlimited in any direction.
see Economic Ecology
As of August 2005 Netcraft was indexing 70,392,567 websites; in February 2007 a Netcraft Web Server Survey found 108,810,358 distinct websites. Netcraft estimated that there were about 273 web pages per website and multiplying their estimate of the number of web pages per website by their February 2007 count of websites, Netcraft estimated 29.7 billion pages on the World Wide Web. As of August 2005 Yahoo was indexing 19.2 billion web pages. Google says there were over a trillion pages by July, 2008.
in 2008 internet traffic was growing at a rate of 50% a year. Ther were 210 billion emails being sent every day, of which about 78% were spam. The number of indexed pages was about 1 trillion, there wer about 800 million users on the 'net, doing $US6.8 trillion in business, which represents about 15% of the global gross domestic product.
in November, 2009 NetCraft reported finding 233,636,281 sites.
Media influences how people respond to their world, (Dean, Annenberg School, U.Penn.) that is, media affects how people deal with the individual situations/life experiences they encounter, for example: Shocking knowledge about the world/continent/country/region/neighborhood/family/self is more noticeable in the media flood of information - being rude gets you on TV more often and people notice rude more readily.
September, 1998: The Starr Report: instantly infamous. Pornoticians conducting bidness as usual. Congress abuses the internet by publishing that stuff but it sure gets noticed!
Cognitive channel phenomena may be observed as the threshold of rudeness (pornography and violence are decidedly rude) required to get viewers' attention rises: saturation (de-sensitization => threshold increase); and the amount of time required to re-sensitize the media and the viewer: refraction. (see Just Noticeable Information)
February 20, 2005. Hunter S. Thompson leaves us.
Apparently by his own hand. So long Doctor, we'll miss him. I've seen him a couple of times, I think I met him once, in 1973, at an election party in Aspen, when he ran for Sheriff. He wasn't elected, but a close associate of his was elected to term as Coroner. I'd heard that nobody died of a drug overdose in Pitkin County for the next four years. I've read lots of his writing, books, articles, I've always admired his writing; capturing the madness and passion of politics, art, and life was his luck. His sense of humor was his salvation, and the reason I loved him. I can't say I liked his love of firearms and violence, but, American to the core, and named well, he hunted successfully. I laughed when I heard the news this morning, he was a unique gentleman to the end.
Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself.
Seattle, Chief of the Duwamish, Suquamish and allied Indian tribes
I remember helping a fellow at Carnegie Tech in 1969 with something he called liquid crystal. At the time it was quite a novelty. I didn't know about its electroreflective properties then, we were working with heat and pressure.
I was writing time sharing programs by 1972, using dial-up modems, I also ran my own minicomputers. In 1974 I declined Bill Gates' (via Willis, a colleague at UNM's computer center) offer of work on the first version of DOS. I thought there was no future in microcomputers, having spent the previous 3 years wrangling minis and time-sharing mainframes into a semblance of interactive information systems. I'd thought there was no future in microcomputers because I thought computers, in general, and software ie, although brilliant with potential had far to go in human terms. I still believe that - computers are not doing that which they'd do best: help us think. Computers have taken over our lives as predicted in the science fiction that preceeded the Big Information Bang, yet I have not met a helpful computer, system or network. They only do what we tell them to do.
In 1975 and 1976 colloquia I heard people from Bell Labs talking about cellular phone technology and words-as-telephone-numbers. The early drawings of cell site maps showed regular, tiled patterns of seamless telephone service coverage. Real cell sites' antennae coverage is far from regular - the inter-adjustment of multiple sites' antennae is an engineeering art form. I wonder if the switching algorithms are still based upon theoretical coverage, or are they adjustable, too? As for the telephone number words, I envisioned a stranded motorist dialing F-L-A-T-T-I-R-E and getting the closest garage, I assumed that there would be intelligence behind the dictionaries, I didn't expect advertisments disguised as catchy names.
Come to think of it, the web's that way now. . .
I worked on interactive online database search services in the mid seventies and I was doing my own text and word processing by 1981. In 1984 I presented a seminar on the organization of text files comprising a 'state-of-the-art' paper (a PhD program requirement at the SLIS, Pitt.), about Computer-Assisted Instruction.* The files were stored in a unix file system using topical filename symbolic links, so that a hyper statement - using link terms - would generate output consisting of the various source texts linked by the terms. The source text files consisted of full, bibliographic records - including Author, Title, Date, Index Terms, Abstract, etc, retrieved from electronic, bibliographic database searches. Link names were multiply-aliased so that topical terms could be organized in rhetorical, pedagogic, and navigational sequences to produce different arrangements and selections of the source text file contents. The results took some emacs/nroff editing effort, but met the school program requirements and were eventually hard-published.* At the time the virtue of this approach was its quick assembly of up-to-date reports. My research in hyper-systems continues. . . cf MoreWays.
I have been anticipating the collision of personal computing, telephones, and television since 1981;
here's my current, 10 - to - 15 year personal information technology expectation:
April, 1999
simple matter to ftp them all at once, say, from My Documents to a private directory. I see that the Driveway Service is offering 100Mb of free, online storage.
SoftWars
International WYSIWYG
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The Lone Eagle incident.
Several years ago the senior editor at Paris Match was visiting Colorado, and he'd heard about what we were calling lone eagles, people who lived in the mountains and worked online. He got in touch with Jane Zimmermann at DACRA, who called me to see if I'd entertain him. With the inept assistance of Desperate Don Dugas, from Southern California with a capital S, I did. I don't recall the editor's name, something quite French, I'm sure. I was to meet him in town, for drinks & dinner, and I was warming up with a couple of early ones at the Palace, where I ran into Don, a member in good standing of the drinking team there. In my happy fog, I invited Don how he'd like a free dinner, compliments of Paris Match. Then, in the Gonzo spirit, I introduced Don as my attorney when Phillipe, let's call him, arrived. After a dinner featuring one or two bottles from the Palace's fine cellar, we went on to the Sundowner, the cowboy saloon up at the corner of 6th & 2nd. Don got disgracefully drunk, and we took him outside, seeking fresh air. He recovered enough to fall down, scraping his head on the street. Phillipe was delighted. Then an affectionate cowgirl started oohing and aahing over Don's head injury, after we went back inside, and Phillipe was even more delighted when she took an interest in him. What could have turned out to have been a really good story, as far as Phillipe was concerned, was sort of spoiled by Don's insistence that the cowgirl should go home with him, and not Phillipe. A Match photographer came to visit me several weeks later, and took pro photos of my office, but I don't think any article ever appeared.
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LANGUAGES I HAVE KNOWN Speaking of languages, a friend asked me if I was doing much Java programming, I'm not, really, apart from a couple of plug & play toys. I've been at least 3 years behind the programming languages curve for 30 years now, but his question got me thinking about languages I have known. I know nothing about FORTH or FIFTH, |
LANGUAGES I HAVEN'T KNOWN: THE LESSER-KNOWN PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES
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# 13 -- C minus (C-)
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Machines I have known
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Operating Systems I have known
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Information Science is an interdisciplinary field, an inquiry into newly important phenomena arising from information technology. Information scientists study the physics, physiology, and psychology of human cognition and information-seeking behavior; ergonomic engineering; symbolic, logical, and computational methods; knowledge transfer; library science; systems policy, management, and procedures; data storage and retrieval, telecommunications and networks; all in a context of information and systems theory. In the past twenty years information science has become more technical as its applications have become more significant.
Cognition: energy → information
Expression: information → energy
† Steven W Hawking A Brief History of Time. New York; Bantam Books. pp. 167 - 168.
uow Wreckage:
the number of moving units occupying the same space simultaneously.
Identities
The expected capacity c, in units per hour of all routes to any destination D, is equal to U, the number of units going there multiplied by the time (in hours per unit) left before each is due at their destination. Note the effect of large numbers of late units upon coefficient h': negative capacity; in extreme squeezage U increases without limit, as, for example, in mass evacuations, and the expected capacity of some routes may become undefined.
This just in:
Ed. Sauer's work on Stupid Fluid Theory includes Stupid Fluid graphics illustrating contention, plugs and other relevant phenomena, and an absurd new traffic flow paradigm invoking Chaos and non deterministic behavior.
All original Stupid Fluid Dynamics fieldwork and theoretical development by myself and Ed. Sauer,
with important contributions by John Strabala (he drove). Comments welcome.
Relativity and the time crunch.
What Einstein actually said was "the rate of a clock is accordingly slower the greater is the mass of the ponderable matter in its neighborhood."‡
Indeed, spacecraft clocks run faster the farther they are from the earth.
Which is to say that the amount of time between two beats of a 'standard clock' equals, in beats:
| 1 + | Κ | ∫ | σdVο |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8π | r |
The combination of this finding and the famous observation that e = mc2, and its implication, that as objects go faster they get more massive, leads to the conclusion that there would be a longer amount of "time" between ticks of a clock on an object traveling at an appreciable fraction of the speed of light, by virtue of its proximity to that object's greater mass. This effect is known as time dilation.
Time dilation is, in theory, only measureable at great velocities, but, just for argument's sake, say that travelling 100 miles every day, at 50 miles an hour, for 10 years, dilates time by 15⁄1000 of a second††. By commuting, you have experienced 15⁄1000 of a second less than those who didn't. You have actually had less time than if you had stayed, relatively speaking in one place, wouldn't you?
‡ Albert Einstein, The Meaning of Relativity. The Stafford Little Lectures of Princeton University May 1921. Princeton University Press; Princeton, New Jersey. 1955. p.92.
†† If you travelled that entire 365,000 miles at the speed of light it would take you at least 1.962 seconds. If you could make that journey in our vicinity, the time dilation would be about (0.017 ÷ 25.13) x (186000 ÷ 7500) = .0168 seconds.
The Age of the Universe Clock has 60 digits showing the 16,432,102,009 years since the beginning, the month, day, hour, minute, second, tenth, hundredth, millisecond, microsecond, and so on. The milliseconds change too fast to show accurately, and the numbers to the right are just shown as zeros, but you should see the hundredths, tenths, and seconds change. You might see the minutes change, don't waste your time waiting for the hours and days to change; you'll see the months and years change eventually, most of us have seen the decades change, few have seen the century change. We were the first people in a thousand years to see the millennium number change, somebody may have seen the next 4 numbers to the left change - ten thousand, a hundred thousand, a million, and ten million years ago. Nobody has ever seen the first 3 digits change.
The very last digit on the right represents the smallest unit of time: the Planck time of 10-44 seconds.
Before the airport opened, the authorities announced that the results of their reliability test - losing only 1 bag out of 7,000 - showed that the system was 99% reliable, but running that many pieces of luggage to test the system would require that only 0.0476 bags go astray in order to meet a criterion of 99% reliability (three σ standard deviations). In order to meet a 99% reliability criterion the system should be able to process 147,058 bags before one goes astray.
"SeaTac is the main Seattle-area airport. Ordinarily aircraft landings are from the north, and this end of the runway is equipped with all the sensing equipment necessary to do ALS (Automatic Landing System) approaches. The early 747 ALS worked beautifully, and the first of these multi-centaton aircraft set down exactly at the spot in the center of the runway that the ALS was heading for. The second 747 set down there. The third 747 landed on this part of the runway... as did all the others. After a while, SeaTac personnel noticed that the concrete at this point at the north end of the ALS runway was breaking up under the repeated impact of 747 landings. So the sofware was modified so that 3 miles out on the approach, a random number generator is consulted to choose a landing spot -- a little long, a little short, a little to the left or a little to the right."
with thanks to the NEU for the fortune cookie file.
Blaise Pascal (1623–62), French scientist, philosopher, for whom the PASCAL programming language was named, said:
Descriptions, Examples and Definitions always help, here's a few:
CWT (Complete Waste of Time): Client billing record term, not used on invoices, accounts for missed appointments, work on products not sold, and time spent with sales reps.
Debt Dead: a terminal, financial condition caused by accumulation of so much debt that one must make payments for longer than one can reasonably expect to live. (see Credit)
Economic Ecology: The competitive selection of businesses. cf Cheng Hsu, Department of Decision Sciences and Engineering Systems, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York, points out that "a firm that can discover a better technology for performing an activity than its competitors gains competitive advantage." He also points out that "when information technology changes the basics of competition in an industry, 50% of the companies in that industry disappear within ten years."
& see Economics and Information
Information Need: the difference between what you know and what you want to know.
Just Noticeable Information: the amount of information it takes to make you think that you know something new. A threshold of perception well below practical levels. Advertising, for example, often exceeds the Just Noticeable Information threshold - so you think you know something new. (see Rude Rules and Can a machine teach?)
Learning Curve: from unix fortune A theory discovered by management consultants in the 1970s, asserting that the more you do something the quicker you can do it.
& see a digression
Squirrelage (skwi•rel•lij): the things that technical tyros or digital dilettantes leave behind in their efforts; as in "this web site's no good, there's squirrelage all over it." Multitudes of squirrels have recently appeared in the guise of 'web developers' and self-proclaimed 'web masters' (although it used to mean something technically specific, web master is no longer a useful term.) I expect the number of 'web developers' to double every month for the rest of the year. The commercial derangement of the world-wide web is in large part due to the inefficiency of MS Windows point and click apps, the marginal internet literacy of the ruffian of Redmond, and squirrels' general ignorance of technical principles. Dang those varmits! Squirrels are often infected with web fever which makes them think they're going to become very rich as soon as everyone else visits their web site. cf squirrelcide in The New Hacker's Dictionary.
Tea: The best quality tea must have creases like the leathern boot of Tartar horsemen, curl like the dewlap of a mighty bullock, unfold like a mist rising out of a ravine, gleam like a lake touched by a zephyr, and be wet and soft like a fine earth newly swept by rain.
Lu Yu (d. 804), Chinese sage, hermit.
Quoted in: Jason Goodwin, The Gunpowder Gardens, Introduction (1990), from the Cha Ching.
visiot: web site visitor idiot, one who can't follow directions, especially one who double clicks things that should only be clicked once. Usage identical with the older term 'user' among programmers and systems analysts. see reho.
Economics and Information
I was pleased to see that the 1997 Nobel Prize for Economics went to work on 'asymmetric information.' I have often wondered what difference it would make if consumers were better informed.
Can a machine teach?
Learning without thought is labor lost; thought without learning is
perilous
Confucius, The Confucian Analects, bk. 2:15
thanks to Cass Armstrong, Systems Librarian Pittsburgh Theological Seminary
Teaching and learning are on opposite sides of the computer coin. Pedagogic teaching's goals are typically published, defined, regulated, even legislated, to the point that specific, measureable outcomes are stipulated for thousands of teaching activities. On the other hand charismatic teaching is characterized by undefined outcomes, informal instruction, and non quantifiable benefits. Why can people learn under a wide variety of teaching approaches? Learning can occur in heterogeneous environments including for example, personal experience ("ow, that stove's hot",) interpersonal relations, active information seeking, primary, secondary, and higher education, formal research, abstract reasoning, and contemplation. Learning is actually motivated as much, if not more than the formal goals of instruction, by learners' own needs, including longer-term, non - task - oriented, situational and socialized needs. Learning predominantly falls short of teaching's goals, by definition, it seems - by normal distribution of outcome measurements.
. . . a digression into behavioral learning theory. . .
Learning and thus teaching is most often evaluated by testing. Tests in a typical course of instruction for example, measure a learner's skill level - on a scale from novice to master and are administered twice: once half way through (midtem) and once at the end (final.) People learn at different rates as shown by the "Learning Curve" illustrated in digression figure 1. cf. Learning Curve in Helpful Defintions
Some will learn a new skill pretty quickly - on curve β, some not so fast - on curve α; everybody else will learn at rates between curves α and β. The quick usually have a better chance of learning all the requisite skills before a course ends.
Notice that administering midterm and final tests at times T1 and T2 respectively, with 'Good' and 'Poor' criteria as shown, can be expected to produce the normally distributed results shown in digression figure 2. the notorious 'bell' curve.
A normal distribution of skill levels will include both satisfactory and failing levels of participant performance at any point in time before Tn - when everyone achives mastery.
Some courses now administer an 'entry level' test too, at time T0 with the expected results illustrated in digression figure 3. - most people have not mastered the 'exit' skills.
Now, suppose you used enough time for those on the lower learning curve α in digression figure 1. to achieve mastery; you would expect the results shown in digression figure 4. - more people mastering the 'exit' skills.
Figures 2., 3. and 4. represent distribution functions on the curves in figure 1.
For learning that is largely a matter of instruction and practice you can provide efficient and effective support with computers.
The instructional effects of advertising and entertainment are, if not deliberate, at least fortuitous:
You have to go with what people are actually doing. After more than 20 years of developments in computer-assisted instruction, most of the now 'highly sophisticated' systems are still trivial or pedagogically flawed. Only the large number of products assures the existence of some better-than-average examples. Prescriptive work is useless, descriptive work at least gets published, motivating what people do makes a difference.
The world-wide web, hypertext, images, multimedia, etc, - can improve computer-assisted instruction by making knowledge structures explicit in the course of learning and by providing multiple paths through relevant knowledge.
So, can a machine teach? No, but a machine can certainly help you learn.
Then there's the business with the I Ching, the Sufis, Sherborne, Gurdjieff, Ouspensky, and Bennett.
I was introduced to the I Ching in 1972 by an Imperial Chinese bishop, episcopal style, who had retired to Gibsonia, Pa, after being run out of mainland China by the Communists, almost 60 years before. He had a 3 storey pagoda in the back garden, built as a tribute by his fellow refugees. In his top floor library was a two volume first edition of Wilhelm's translation of the Book of Changes, which caught my eye. We chatted, in that tiny room, for a half an hour, my looming size perhaps transgressing his personal space, but his Imperial manners gave him patience with me. He showed me the book and discussed the Oracle, saying that he'd met Richard Wilhelm when Wilhelm was translating the book of changes.
The idea that everything-which-changes follows understandable patterns probably arises from a cognitive phenomena involving recognizability and remembering. The I Ching's summation of the patterns of change in 8 x 8 odd/even combinations of 2 simple differences taken 3 at a time is elegantly complete. One of the first insights that Wilhelm explains is that the changes of the Hexagram - the 64 different hexagrams, can be viewed as a cube in 8 dimensions.
The drawing on the right, above, illustrates, in two dimensions, a cube viewed in Ø, 1, 2, and 3 dimensions, according to the number of sides of it you can see: 0, 1, 2, and 3. Its almost possible to illustrate a cube viewed in 4 dimensions but you can see all six faces of a cube at once in 4 dimensions. In 8 dimensions you could see both sides of all six faces at once - the 8 changes in the combinations of the hexagram.
Which brings me back to Sherborne, a place I'd first seen in a 1973 National Geographic article about Sufis, at the beginning of my interest in human potential and realization.
In 1980 I visited my grandma (neé Marjorie Dutton) at Fairlight before setting off to the west country, to see Sherborne. Grandma had rambled on about Earl Dutton and the shabby way the family had cut her off for marrying my grandfather, a welsh bank clerk, in London. So, I find Sherborne, walk in the back, and say to the first person I see, "Hello, I'm a seeker of the heart." To which he said, "Well, you'd better come in and have a cup of tea." I spent 10 days among those people, technical masters of the fourth way. After a few days of spirited discussion I fasted and weeded the gardens, after which I was invited to an upstairs demo of the circle turning. I had prowled the halls of that old house, and was surprised to find portraits of the Earl of Dutton, S , and the family, going back hundreds of years. Its taken me 25 years to find that I'd stumbled across the remanants of the School of Continuous Education, the school that Bennett had established, and at which Gurdjieff, Ouspensky and Idries Shah had taught, years ago. I learned too, that Bennett had died, of a surprise heart attack, in the very gardens I'd tended.
I see that Sherborne is now condominiums.
When it comes to religion I have a planetarian outlook, I prefer to make fun of religion rather than contemplate the deep, deep harm its brought the world. Here are a couple of my favorite fragments concerning religion: When people ask me what religion I am, unless they're ready for my planetarian outlook I say I am a Frisbeetarian; we believe that when you die your soul goes up and gets stuck on the roof. I read that more than 75% of all prayers are now deflected by satellites and space junk.
It being the proportion of a happy pen
not to be invassall'd to one monarchie
but dwell with all the better world of men (sic)
whose spirits all are of one communitie
whom neither oceans, desarts, (sic) rocks nor sands
can keep from th'intertraffique of the mind.
- Samuel Daniel, 1603.
Upon publication in England of the Essays of Montaigne.
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# 62 -- BREW